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为什么你看了那么多巴菲特的问答,依然没记住几个?

18-01-08 10:44    作者:Blogbuffett    相关股票:

为什么你看了那么多巴菲特的问答,依然没记住几个?

 

2018-01-07 投资之道

 

每年五月,是一年一度的伯克希尔股东大会,巴菲特和芒格将会花6-7小时,回答数十个现场提问。这是一场巴菲特和芒格作为导师的现场授课,他们孜孜不倦地坚持了数十年。

 

那么问题来了,在20175月伯克希尔股东大会上,巴菲特和芒格一共回答了57个现场提问,你还记得几个呢?

 

也许是只顾着感受现场气氛,也许是因为问答时间太长了,也许是因为巴菲特回答得太快了,也许是因为时间过得太久了,想必最终能记住几个问答的人都算很厉害了吧。

 

但是国外的朋友开辟了一个buffettfaq.com的网站,详细记录了近十七年(1994-2010)巴菲特的463个问题的现场问答,并按照投资方法、估值、市场、管理等进行了分类,共计18个类别(18463个问答请访问buffettfaq.com)。例如下面就是463个问题中的第一个问题:

 

Investing Approach(第一个分类)

Q1:Have you ever bought a company where the numbers told you not to? How much is quantitative and how much is qualitative?

 

A:The best buys have been when the numbers almost tell you not to. Because then you feel so strongly about the product. And not just the fact you are getting a used cigar butt cheap. Then it is compelling. I owned a windmill company at one time. Windmills are cigar butts, believe me. I bought it very cheap, I bought it at a third of working capital. And we made money out of it, but there is no

repetitive money to be made on it.

There is a one-time profit in

something like that. And it is just not the thing to be doing. I went through that phase. I bought streetcar companies and all kinds of things. In terms of the qualitative, I probably understand the qualitative the moment I get the phone call. Almost every business we have bought has taken five or ten minutes in terms of analysis. We bought two businesses this year.

General Re is a $18 billion deal. I have never been to their home office. I hope it is there.

(Laughter) “There could be a few guys there saying what numbers should we send Buffett this month?” I could see them going once a month and saying we have $20 billion in the bank instead of $18 billion.I have never been there.

Before I bought Executive Jet, which is fractional ownership of jets, before I bought it, I had never been there. I bought my family a quarter interest in the program three years earlier. And I have seen the service and it seems to develop well. And I got the numbers. But if you don’t know enough to know about the business instantly, you won’t know enough in a month or in two months. You have to have sort of the background of understanding and knowing what you do or don’t understand. That is the key. It is defining your circle of competence.

Everybody has got a different circle of competence. The important thing is not how big the circle is, the important thing is the size of the circle; the important thing is staying inside the circle. And if that circle only has 30 companies in it out of 1000s on the big board, as long as you know which 30 they are, you will be OK. And you should know those businesses well enough so you don’t need to read lots of work. Now I did a lot of work in the earlier years just getting familiar with businesses and the way I would do that is use what Phil Fisher would call, the “Scuttlebutt Approach.”

I would go out and talk to customers, suppliers, and maybe ex-employees in some cases. Everybody. Everytime I was interested in an industry, say it was coal, I would go around and see every coal company. I would ask every CEO, “If you could only buy stock in one coal company that was not your own, which one would it be and why? You piece those things together, you learn about the business after a while.

Funny, you get very similar answers as long as you ask about competitors. If you had a silver bullet and you could put it through the head of one competitor, which competitor and why? You will find who the best guy is in the industry. So there are a lot of things you can learn about a business. I have done that in the past on the business I felt I could understand so I don’t have to do that anymore. The nice thing about investing is that you don’t have to learn anything new. You can do it if you want to, but if you learn Wrigley’s chewing gum forty years ago, you still understand Wrigley’s chewing gum. There are not a lot of great insights to get of the sort as you go along. So you do get a database in your head.

I had a guy, Frank Rooney, who ran Melville for many years; his

father-in-law died and had owned

H.H. Brown, a shoe company. And he put it up with Goldman Sachs. But he was playing golf with a friend of mine here in Florida and he mentioned it to this friend, so my friend said “Why don’t you call Warren?” He called me after the match and in five minutes I basically had a deal.

But I knew Frank, and I knew the business. I sort of knew the basic economics of the shoe business, so I could buy it. Quantitatively, I have to decide what the price is. But, you know, that is either yes or no. I don’t fool a lot around with negotiations. If they name a price that makes sense to me, I buy it. If they don’t, I was happy the day before, so I will be happy the day after without owning it.

 

 

Source: Lecture at the University of Florida Business School

Time: October 15th 1998

 

(来自19981015日,巴菲特在佛罗里达大学商学院的演讲)

 

看懵了就对了,哦,看完了,算你狠。。这份463个巴菲特常见问题的问答经过了很好的分类,对价值投资者以及喜欢巴菲特的朋友来说,都是极为宝贵的资料。

 

那么问题来了,这些全是英文怎么办?

 

好消息是:“投资名师”公众号正在着手对这些(19942010年)巴菲特原版问答对话进行翻译,还将补充最近八年(2011年—至今)的问答对话内容。除了巴菲特问答FAQ,他们的文字翻译还包括伯克希尔投资组合季度报告。下图是上面问题的部分翻译(这个问答是免费的,添加公众微信号tzmasters即可免费查看):

 

 


 

他们还对巴菲特、查理芒格、霍华德马克思以及格林伍德(哥伦比亚大学商学院价值投资课程主讲教授)最新的视频进行了翻译:

 

 




 

 


 

 

所以我们今天将对这个公众号进行推广。

 

如果你希望查看某一个问题巴菲特是如何回答的。进入公众号后,你会发现很多内容都是免费的,对需要收费的内容,只需要消费1元即可购买单个材料的阅读权限,你也可以消费178元购买年度会员,浏览所有内容。

 

以下是“投资名师”公众号介绍:

 

本公众号内容以翻译时间为序发表在“最新内容”之中。“观阅”栏目里提供视频和文章,而“收听”栏目(内容筹备之中)里提供语音资料。

 

同时,以上视频和文章再以人名档案形式存放在“诸家宝典”中。 此栏目将收藏沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、霍华德·马克斯等三位投资名师的信息档案,同时也收藏注重实际应用的学者布鲁斯·格林伍德的著作言论。鉴于微信菜单数量上的限制,其他杰出投资经理和研究者(如杰里米·格兰瑟姆、赛思·卡拉曼)的资料收藏于“更多名师”(内容筹备之中)之中。

 

1994-2017年的《巴菲特问答FAQ汇编》是本公众号的重点翻译内容。共有17章。

 

近年来发布的采访视频也是我们关注并翻译的另一个重点内容。

 

根据读者的需求,我们将调整以上两个重点内容的翻译优先顺序。

 

付费方式:点击单个视频/或文章的右端的“阅读”,进入“选择支付类型”。此处进行微信支付。

 

1. 选择“购买课程”(¥1.00),仅能观赏和阅读该单个视频/或文章。次数不限。(您是普通会员)(注意很多内容是可以免费观看的)

 

2. 选择“年付”(¥178.00),即可观赏和阅读本公众号的所有内容。时限为1年。(您是VIP

 

收费有助于我们提高翻译质量。

 

大量原版对话翻译,实现零距离观摩。让您的投资像巴菲特所说的那样,“从猿进化到人”。能使您守得住一生血汗钱,并有望积累更多财富!

 

投资之道:该公众号后续将持续更新,为大家奉上原汁原味的价值投资精彩内容,包括几位大师最新的视频访谈。朋友们的支持将帮助他们更好地坚持这项工作。希望了解详情或查看大量免费资源的朋友,请搜索并添加投资名师微信号:tzmasters


 
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